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Finance and economics
财经版块
The missing investment boom
消失的投资热潮
Perhaps AI is a busted flush. Perhaps the revolution will just take time.
或许人工智能的热潮失败了，或许这场革命只是需要时间。
Many economists believe that generative artificial intelligence (AI) is about to transform the global economy.
许多经济学家认为，生成性人工智能即将改变全球经济。
A paper published last year by Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu of Epoch, a research firm, argues that “explosive growth”, with GDP zooming upwards, is “plausible with AI capable of broadly substituting for human labour”.
纪元研究公司的艾格·厄迪尔和塔梅·贝斯洛格鲁去年发表的一篇论文认为，在人工智能可以广泛地替代人类劳动的情况下，“爆炸性增长”，即GDP飞速上升，是可能实现的。
Erik Brynjolfsson of Stanford University has said that he expects AI “to power a productivity boom in the coming years”.
斯坦福大学的艾瑞克·布瑞恩乔弗森表示，他预计人工智能“将在未来推动生产力大繁荣”。
For such an economic transformation to take place, firms need to spend big on software, communications, equipment and factories, enabling AI to slot into production processes.
为了实现这样的经济转型，企业需要在软件、通信、设备和工厂上投入巨资，使人工智能可以进入生产过程。
An investment boom was required to allow previous breakthroughs, such as the tractor and the personal computer, to spread across the economy.
之前的科技突破，如拖拉机和个人电脑等，需要投资热潮的助力才能在整个经济中推广。
From 1992 to 1999 American non-residential investment rose by 3% of GDP, for instance, driven in large part by spending on computer technologies.
例如，从1992年到1999年，美国非居民投资的增长幅度为GDP的3%，这在很大程度上是由计算机技术方面的支出推动的。
Yet so far there is little sign of an AI splurge.
然而，到目前为止，几乎没有迹象表明在人工智能方面有大手笔的投资。
Across the world, capital expenditure by businesses (or “capex”) is remarkably weak.
世界范围内，企业的资本支出非常疲软。
After sluggish growth in the years before the covid-19 pandemic, capex increased as lockdowns lifted.
新冠肺炎疫情之前的几年里，资本支出增长乏力，疫情后封控解除，资本支出有所增加。
In early 2022 it was rising at an annualised rate of about 8% a year.
2022年初，资本支出以每年约8%的年化速度上升。
A mood of techno-optimism had gripped some businesses, while others sought to firm up supply chains.
一些企业洋溢着技术乐观主义情绪，而另一些企业则力图巩固供应链。
Capex then slowed later the same year, owing to the effects of geopolitical uncertainty and higher interest rates.
同年晚些时候，由于地缘政治的不确定性和利率上升的影响，资本支出放缓。
On the eve of the release of OpenAI’s GPT-4 in March 2023, global capex spending was growing at an annualised rate of about 3%.
在2023年3月OpenAI的GPT-4发布前夕，全球资本支出年化增长率约为3%。
Today some companies are once again ramping up capex, to seize what they see as the enormous opportunity in AI.
如今，一些公司再次加大资本支出，以抓住他们眼中的AI大风口。
This year forecasters reckon that Microsoft’s spending (including on research and development) will probably rise by close to 20%.
预测人士估计，今年微软的支出(包括研发支出)可能会增加近20%。
Nvidia’s is set to soar by upwards of 30%.
英伟达的支出将飙升30%以上。
“AI will be our biggest investment area in 2024, both in engineering and compute resources,” reported Mark Zuckerberg, Meta’s boss, at the end of last year.
“人工智能将是我们2024年最大的投资领域，投资方向包括工程和计算资源。”Meta的老板马克·扎克伯格在去年年底表示。
Elsewhere, though, plans are more modest.
不过，其他企业的计划则保守一些。
Exclude firms driving the AI revolution, such as Microsoft and Nvidia, and those in the S&P 500 are planning to lift capex by only around 2.5% in 2024—ie, by an amount in line with inflation.
除去推动人工智能革命的公司，如微软和英伟达，标普500指数公司计划在2024年仅将资本支出提高约2.5%，与通胀率持平。
Across the economy as a whole, the situation is even bleaker.
在整个经济中，资本支出情况甚至更加黯淡。
An American capex “tracker” produced by Goldman Sachs, a bank, offers a picture of businesses’ outlays, as well as hinting at future intentions.
高盛银行的美国资本支出“跟踪器”提供了企业支出的情况，同时也暗示了企业未来投资的意图。
It is currently falling by 4% year on year.
目前与去年同期相比企业支出下降了4%。
